Anthropic Econ Scenario Explorer: modest / substantial / extreme to 2030

On 9 Sep 2026 Anthropic published Scenarios for our Economic Future — an interactive Econ Scenario Explorer at anthropic.com/institute/econ-scenarios — alongside the Institute working paper Economic Scenarios for Transformative AI (Korinek, Jones, Sacher, Cotter, McCrory). The task-based model maps AI capability and adoption into US GDP, wages, labor share, reallocation, and unemployment through 2030. Three headline paths: modest (AI ~internet-scale; GDP +1.6% vs no-AI baseline, little job impact), substantial (AI on ~half of knowledge work capability but incomplete diffusion; GDP +8.3%, knowledge wages flat, unemployment ~4.6%), and extreme (near-full automation of knowledge tasks, likely needing recursive self-improvement; GDP +32%, unemployment near 12%, labor share falling from ~60% to ~45%). A companion survey of ~11k US adults puts the median respondent near the substantial path. Axios covered the release the same day. The explorer is framed as a comparison tool, not a forecast.